Trump’s Base In Trouble: The Number Of Uneducated White Voters In Steep Decline

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The number of white Americans without college degrees dropped more than five million in the past four years.

A key portion of President Donald Trump’s base — white Americans without college degrees — is on a steady long term decline and has decreased in number by more than five million since taking Trump across the finish line four years ago.

  • Meanwhile, the number of minority and college-educated white voters is on the rise, collectively increasing by 13 million since 2016, The Washington Post reports, noting: “In key swing states, the changes far outstrip Mr. Trump’s narrow 2016 margins.”
  • GOP strategist Ken Spain noted: “The combination of the president’s personality and style combined with the demographic challenges leaves very little margin for error. Increasing registration while juicing turnout is his only play at this stage.”
  • The Post wrote that Trump can still find new voters in swing states but noted that “most of these states have also been undergoing the same changes in the electorate as the country as a whole.”

And compared with Mr. Trump’s tiny 2016 margins in some of these states, the demographic changes since then are a tsunami, especially in critical states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.

The changes in demographics are driven largely by aging: The non-college-educated white cohort is older and steadily declining as its members die. The Biden coalition is younger and aging into the electorate.

  • The report noted that in 2000, those in the Silent and older generations and Baby Boomers comprised 68 percent of the electorate; however, in 2020, it is Gen X, Millennial and Gen Z voters who comprise the majority of voters, at 61 percent.

Read the full report.


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