While the president’s tax cuts will likely spur the economy over the next two years, dozens of the nation’s top business economists have predicted the start of another recession by 2020 if President Donald Trump’s trade policies remain in effect, The Associated Press reported Monday.
In its latest quarterly outlook, the National Association for Business Economics’ panel of 45 economists say they anticipate gross domestic product (GDP) to increase 2.8 percent for 2018 – a slight decrease from their March prediction, which pegged GDP growth at 2.9 percent.
The panel also forecasts a good year in 2019, predicting a 2.7 rise in GDP.
Both years are expected to show an economic boost thanks to Trump’s $1.5 trillion tax cut.
But that is where the good news ends and an economic downturn begins, the experts said.
Three-fourths of the NABE panel believes Trump’s trade policies will adversely impact the U.S. economy – particularly as tariffs imposed on Mexico, Canada, the European Union, and China are met with retaliatory measures.
The economic effects of trade policy combined with “underlying factors such as the retirement of the baby boomers and weak productivity gains will continue to depress long-term growth prospects”, the economist said.
When do they anticipate the recession to begin?
Two-thirds believe it will start by the end of 2020, the AP said; 18 percent think the economy won’t make it through the end of next year.