As President Donald Trump's escalating trade dispute with Canada gained steam over the weekend, his supporters were likely watching from home, giving the president two thumbs up – but according to CNBC, they might stand to lose the most.
A CNBC analysis of 2016 voter turnouts and trade flows with Canada shows that states such as Ohio, Texas and Indiana that supported Trump generally enjoy a surplus in goods trade with Canada. By contrast, the biggest goods trade deficits with Canada are in states such as California and Illinois that voted for Clinton.
According to White House data, the U.S. does run an overall trade deficit with Canada when it comes to goods – about $17.5 billion last year.
But trade in services last year yielded the U.S. a surplus of about $25.9 billion – more than enough to cover the loss.
[T]he U.S. economy, and the bulk of jobs it produces, is much more heavily weighted toward the delivery of services, from the production of television and movies to the delivery of a college education.
Those services also represent a major U.S. export. When a family from Montreal visits Disney World in Florida or a student from Toronto pays tuition to a university in Kansas, that exchange represents an export of U.S. services.
For states whose primary exports are goods, Trump's trade policies and the retaliation they inspire would do the most damage.