Dr. Peter Turchin via Phys.org, discusses the field Cliodynamics, of which he is the founder. Cliodynamics uses data science and history to study the trajectory of historical empires and modern nation-states.
Turchin’s model indicates that "social instability and political violence would peak in the 2020s." He says that the presidential election confirms his forecast and the “negative trends” are accelerating.
Among the factors that Turchin studies are*"*growing income and wealth inequality, stagnating and even declining well-being of most Americans, and growing political fragmentation and government dysfunction. "
Turchin continues to explain elite overproduction:
"Increasing inequality leads not only to the growth of top fortunes; it also results in greater numbers of wealth-holders. The '1 percent' becomes '2 percent.' Or even more. … from 1983 to 2010 the number of American households worth at least $10 million grew to 350,000 from 66,000. Rich Americans tend to be more politically active than the rest of the population. … In technical terms, such a situation is known as 'elite overproduction.' … Elite overproduction generally leads to more intra-elite competition that gradually undermines the spirit of cooperation, which is followed by ideological polarization and fragmentation of the political class. This happens because the more contenders there are, the more of them end up on the losing side. A large class of disgruntled elite-wannabes, often well-educated and highly capable, has been denied access to elite positions."
Another sign of the "increasing intra-elite competition and political polarization is the fragmentation of political parties."
The GOP has splintered into three factions: Traditional Republicans, Tea Party Republicans, and Trump Populists. Party lines between them run so deep that may even voted for Clinton in the 2016 election. Similarly, the Democratic Party has split into Bernie Sanders’ Democratic Socialists and the Establishment Democrats of Obama and Clinton.
Turchin believes that it is unlikely Trump will reverse the negative trends — in fact, he may make the trends accelerate even faster. Reducing taxes on wealthy Americans, for example, will not strengthen the state’s fiscal health.
Turchin recommends “open discussion of problems and potential solutions” and “broad-based collective action to implement them.”