A Washington-based think tank released an analysis of the upcoming 2020 elections, in which it concluded there would likely be a blue wave even if the vote-by-mail method is blocked.
On Tuesday, the Niskanen Center predicted the results of the 2020 congressional elections based on the current situation in the U.S. It found a downward trend of support for the Republican party even before the pandemic hit the states, as six more House Republicans retired in addition to the 26 strategic retirements prior to the 2018 cycle.
Moreover, based on the results in Wisconsin, the think tank firmly believed that even without a vote-by-mail method, the Democratic Party could win over the Republicans and seize the Senate in the future.
“When the negative partisanship model meets a contest with demographics ready to produce a large turnout surge, and voting is easy, the probability for a Democratic victory is enhanced,” the Niskanen Center’s report wrote.
It went on to discuss the influence of Latino voters, a population that Republicans are trying to seize by floating a candidate like Mike Garcia, who has both an immigrant and Navy background. However, the report analyzed that “a surge in turnout among Latino voters played a pivotal role in the district’s transition from red to blue. They doubled their 2014 turnout rate of 25 percent to 54 percent despite a massive uptick in registrations.”
The Niskanen Center also pointed out that President Donald Trump could be one of the biggest obstacles for the Republican Party to gain votes.
“The image of a disaffected Republican Party, embarrassed by their ‘chaos’ president, so far runs into an irrefutable data-reality that Republican voter turnout, even in the 40 suburban districts Democrats flipped, was robust.”
The analysis also saw the growth of the Democratic Party because of general dissatisfaction with the incumbent president, and wrote, “the blue wave that washed through America’s suburbs in 2018 was powered by a massive turnout of Democrats and independents, who showed up in droves to toss Republican House incumbents out of office and send a message to Donald Trump.”
The Niskanen Center recognized how the pandemic would further push voters toward blue rather than red, which could help the Democrats take over the Senate.
“Democrats will not only hold their 2018 House gains — they are poised to expand on their House majority and are competitive to take control of the Senate. In fact, at the writing of this article, the COVID-19 death toll exceeds 50,000 Americans. Yet Republican-led states like Florida and Georgia are reopening their states even in the midst of rising infection and death rates. By the time we enter the fall the death rate from the pandemic may well reach the dire predictions of early models,” it said.