Keeping with a strong showing last year that continues ahead of the 2018 midterms, Democrats succeeded in flipping a Missouri state senate seat in a district President Donald Trump won by nearly 30 points in 2016.
Democrat Mike Revis won by 3 points in House District 97 in Tuesday's special election - and he wasn't the only Democrat to win big yesterday.
That 31-point swing relative to the 2016 election was extraordinarily large, but actually notthe greatest swing of the night. Over in House District 144, Democrats took a relatively narrow 53-47 loss in a district that Trump carried by 59 points. The other two GOP holds in Missouri also had large swings, with Democrats outperforming Hillary Clinton by 18 points in one race and by 25 points in another.
Tuesday's results mark the continuation of a trend begun last year:
[A]cross 70 special elections in 2017, Democrats ran 10 points ahead of Clinton and 7 points ahead of Barack Obama’s 2012 results. Those numbers have accelerated into 2018. Across nine races, Democrats are running 27 points ahead of Clinton and 12 points ahead of Obama.
And as Vox also notes, this Democratic success is having immediate real-world effects:
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker has decided to leave a number of formerly GOP-held seats vacant rather than schedule special elections his party might lose, national Republicans are pushing the panic button on an upcoming special House election in Pennsylvania, and GOP leadership is letting scandal-plagued Rep. Blake Farenthold stick around in his seat rather than risk a special election.