Democrats Open Large Early Voting Lead In Swing States

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Though encouraging for Biden supporters, experts warn the early lead does not mean President Trump will lose.

In six key battleground states, Democrats have opened a wide gap in early voting over Republicans, Politico reports.

In a more worrisome sign for Republicans, Democrats are also turning out more low-frequency and newly registered voters than the GOP, according to internal data shared with POLITICO by Hawkfish, a new Democratic research firm, which was reviewed by Republicans and independent experts.

  • Politico notes that this doesn’t mean Biden is set to win, but “the turnout disparity with new and less-reliable voters has forced Republican political operatives to take notice.”
  • Veteran GOP strategist Scott Reed called it “a warning flare,” adding: “I think running an election in a superpolarized electorate, you want to win early voting. Let’s go. Let’s stop talking and making excuses.”
  • In Florida, a crucial battleground state, more Republicans have cast in-person early ballots than Democrats, but Democrats are dominating mail-in voting and held an historic lead in total pre-Election Day ballots cast.

At a glance, the top-line Democratic margins also look huge in Arizona (16 percentage points), Michigan (24 points), North Carolina (14 points), Pennsylvania (46 points), and Wisconsin (22), according to the analysis from Hawkfish, which is funded by billionaire Michael Bloomberg, a Trump foe.

  • Regardless of the data, Hawkfish CEO Josh Mendelsohn urged Democrats not to become complacent, saying high-propensity Trump voters are expected to increasingly show up in large numbers.
  • Mendelsohn said people “want the forecasts to be like a hurricane forecast and just to be perfect. And it's not, because it is like hurricanes, you've got a whole bunch of model tracks, of which some are more reliable than others in certain circumstances.”

Read the full report.


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