CBO Analysis: Senate Tax Bill Will Hurt Poor Americans The Most

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The poorest Americans will be worse off under the Senate tax bill, while the richest Americans will enjoy a windfall.

Senate Republicans are hoping to vote on their tax reform bill as early as this week, but according to the latest report by the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office, the GOP plan will be detrimental to the poorest of Americans.

By 2019, Americans earning less than $30,000 a year would be worse off under the Senate bill, CBO found. By 2021, Americans earning $40,000 or less would be net losers, and by 2027, most people earning less than $75,000 a year would be worse off. On the flip side, millionaires and those earning $100,000 to $500,000 would be big beneficiaries, according to the CBO’s calculations.

The primary factor driving this hard hit to the poor, according to the CBO, is a provision that removes the individual health care mandate:

The Senate Republican tax bill eliminates the requirement that almost all Americans purchase health insurance or else pay a penalty. The CBO has calculated that health insurance premiums would rise if this bill becomes law, leading 4 million Americans to lose health insurance by 2019 and 13 million to lose insurance by 2027.

As far as actual tax cuts are concerned, those on the lower-income side will see their cuts expire:

But that changes in 2027 because the Senate GOP bill currently allows the individual tax cuts to expire in 2026. In 2027, people earning less than $75,000 would end up paying more, according to the JCT. Republicans say Congress will likely extend those cuts, but that counts on future lawmakers taking action.