After Adjusting For The Economy, Trump Suffered Worst Midterm Loss Since 1918

Screengrab/The White House/YouTube

Controlling for the strength of the economy, President Trump took the biggest midterm hit in the last one hundred years.

President Donald Trump bragged on Wednesday that his party did far better after his first midterm elections than Democrats did under former President Barack Obama, but it appears that once analysts control for the strength of the economy, Republicans actually fared worse than any other president’s party in the last one hundred years.

Via Quartz:

JP Morgan Asset and Wealth Management’s Michael Cembalest took a look at the vote results (pdf). Adjusted for the strength of the economy, he says they represent the worst performance for a president’s party since 1918.

“There have been large midterm swings before, but usually when markets were bad, when the economy was bad, or both,” Cembalest writes. “The chart tells the story: midterm House seats lost since 1910 are shown alongside changes in inflation, employment, equity markets and home prices. Based on the hand the GOP started with, they should probably have been able to retain the House. Sometimes, however, money can’t buy you love.”


For Democrats, this news is a mixed bag: It suggests how negatively Donald Trump is perceived by the public, also demonstrated in the party’s victory march through wealthier and better-educated suburbs. But it also shows how the economy protects the president, with high Republican turnout in states like Florida, Ohio and Missouri checking the potential of the Democratic wave.

View the charts here.

Comments (4)
No. 1-2

Now that is a bald-faced lie! Check Obama's midterms and you will see he has about the same results. so shut up


Not really. You need to check the results, and consider the Trump has done nothing that created an economy boost, all he did was not totally fuck up what Obama put in place. That will alter soon and we're headed into a huge recession soon.