While the economy is strong today, a majority of economists believe that a recession will hit by the 2020 election, according to Fortune.
The economy is predicted to continue to grow at a rate of 2.6% which is down from last year’s rate of 2.8% and will slow down to 2.1% in 2020.
Consumer spending continues to drive the economy with a rate of 2.4% year-over-year-growth. Average monthly job growth of 184,000 in 2019 and predicted growth of 139,000 in 2020 has continued to help bolster the economy.
However, due to normal cycles of the economy, we are long due for a recession and most economists believe it is coming soon.
Economists think the main economic problems will come from the housing market as well as the trade wars that the US has started. Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist at the National Retail Federation, said, “There are really headwinds in the housing market in terms of residential investment.” Kleinhenz also said about trade, “the greatest downside risk is trade policy and increased protectionism.”
The trade wars raise uncertainty and slow trading between countries which then makes company leaders “hesitant to spend their retained earnings gained over the last number of years,” said Benjamin Pace, chief investment officer at Cerity Partners. These factors may help to slow economic growth and lead into a recession.