Heading into the 2018 midterms, it becomes increasingly clear that a significant number of House seats are susceptible to the impending Democratic wave – more than initially thought, according to CNN.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report puts the number of competitive seats at 84, and Democrats only need to net 23 to retake control of the House.
"If the only data point you had to go on was last night's #AZ08 result, you'd think a 30-40 seat Dem House gain in Nov. would be way low," tweeted David Wasserman, the House editor of the non-partisan Cook Political Report.
Yes, Republican Debbie Lesko beat Democrat Hiral Tipirneni in the 8th District special election triggered by former Republican Rep. Trent Franks resignation amid claims of sexual harassment.
But, Lesko's margin -- 5.2 percentage points -- is far less than the 25 points Mitt Romney won the district by in 2012 or the 21-point margin for Trump in 2016.
And that difference in margin is not an isolated event: Just a month ago, Rep. Conor Lamb bested Republican Rick Saccone in Pennsylvania’s 18th District – a district Trump carried by 20 points in 2016.
The lesson here is obvious: Driven by their distaste for Trump, the Democratic base is turning out in droves. The Republican base, fat and happy with control of the House, Senate and the White House, is less galvanized. And, loosely-affiliated partisans seem to be acting much more like Democrats than Republicans in the elections since Trump won the White House.
Simply stated: Arizona's 8th District results suggests that the coming wave is big -- and getting bigger.