Will Ethereum Make The Same Run As Bitcoin?


Analyst including those at Seeking Alpha think Ethereum will move above $20,000 due to Metcalf’s Law.

Metcalf’s Law deals with network economics and helps to explain how a system is supported by the number of individuals in the system. Metcalf’s Law states that the effect of a telecommunications network is proportional to the square of the number of users of the system (n²). To simplify it take this example with telephones, if you have 2 telephones you can have one connection, but if you have 5 telephones (10 connections), 12 telephones (66 connections), etc.

Initially, there was not much proof of Metcalf’s Law. However, that proof materialized when an analysis of European internet usage and connectivity produced expected results. Researchers were able to apply the n² to show in part the proportional gains in internet usage. As well (n log n) was applied to show the proof of the application of Metcalf’s Law to network economics and how the growth of the internet in Europe was mathematically mapped out.

Then, researchers applied the same principles to Facebook’s growth rate. Without that initial connectivity and the spread of enthusiasm, Facebook might never have garnered the momentum it needed to draw in a necessary crowd size to get it to be relevant.

Applying these same principles to Bitcoin, it turns out that 70% of Bitcoin’s value can be explained mathematically by looking at its network size and the number of individuals connected within the network (it produces a 0.7 coincidence rate).

When you look at Ethereum's network size, the number of connections, and trajectory of price, Metcalf’s Law is being repeated once again with Ethereum. In fact, Ethereum is exceeding that of Bitcoin’s movements. If Ethereum actually does repeat Bitcoin’s movements, Ethereum will hit $20k.

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Economics, Finance and Investing