Trump Grew The Wealth Of Americans In Cities And Then They Voted Against Him
The job and wage growth that occurred in the last 4 years gave Trump the confidence that he would win a second term. This growth was very strong in America biggest cities. However those that thrived most voted in mass to remove him from office (The largest county that backed Trump is Suffolk County, 26th in population, on New York’s Long Island).
In Texas Trump lost the county that includes Fort Worth (1st time Republican's lost since 1964). In Florida a large city, Jacksonville, voted Democratic for the first time since 1976. Phoenix’s county voted Democratic for the first time since 1948. (Trump lost 91 of the nation’s 100 largest counties by population in the 2020 election, four more than in 2016).
Increasingly statistic show Metropolitan America (commonly with higher education levels and concentration of white-collar jobs) are more and more voting Democratic (Mr. Trump this year won 16 of the 100 counties where residents are most likely to have four-year college degrees). In the counties that flipped to Mr. Biden, an average 38.5% of employed adults hold white-collar jobs. Republicans strengthen their hold on slower-growing and rural parts of the country. (Mr. Trump this year won 83% of counties, accounting for less than 30% of GDP.)
More than anything else this election seems to be a commentary on Trump, people voted Democrat more often in the nation’s large metros, largely because of suburban voters. But many of them also backed Republicans for Congress (suggesting its not party driven). From the start of Mr. Trump’s presidency through the time coronavirus struck, employment grew by 5.3% in counties that backed Mr. Biden after supporting Mr. Trump in 2016. By comparison, job growth was 1.4% in counties that voted Democratic in the prior election but backed Mr. Trump this year.
The concentration of white-collar jobs “is a good predictor of culture, class, and economic outlook,’’ said Kenan Fikri of the Economic Innovation Group, a bipartisan policy research group. Referring to the flipped counties, he said: “The forces sorting Americans along these lines into distinct political camps seem quite powerful. These places resisted the trend in 2016, but the pressure was too great in 2020, and they snapped into place.’’
The growing divisions help explain why the nation’s political center is shrinking. “What they’re reflecting are increasingly distinct experiences of American opportunity and well-being,’’ said John Lettieri, the group’s president. “We should expect that as long as those trends continue, we’re going to see those as tailwinds to the polarization in our politics.’’
Among only the top 100 counties with the highest incomes, 57 backed the Democrat for president, up from 49 counties in 2016.